Natosha White has spent the past year grieving her late son Evan Denny. In late April, White joined others at the Minneapolis American Indian Center to remember their loved ones who have died or gone missing.
White came with her daughter, her daughter-in-law, her nieces and nephews. Together, they painted small rocks with the names of those they lost.
“It’s rough to be in this building, just because this is a place where we had his wake and funeral,” White said. “It took me a little minute to come back here. But it also can be a place of healing in some way.”
The rocks will be laid out as a path on Tuesday, inside that same building, for a day of remembrance for missing and murdered Indigenous relatives. The day is observed every year on May 5 across the country.
A year after Denny was killed alongside three other young people in south Minneapolis, his family is among those gathering in remembrance. The day comes as Minnesota’s MMIR office assists a growing number of families. The state office is assisting with more cases — and closing more of them — as families who once waited years for help are increasingly coming forward.
A participant memorialized the four young people killed last April in Minneapolis by painting their names on rocks on April 27. The rocks will be part of a memorial displayed during a day of remembrance for missing and murdered Indigenous people at the Minneapolis American Indian Center on May 5.
Melissa Olson | MPR News
Ana Negrete is the community planner at Minnesota’s Office of Missing and Murdered Indigenous Relatives. She says more families are reaching out to the office than at any point since it opened.
The clearest change is in homicide and suspicious death cases. When the office’s Gaagige-Mikwendaagoziwag Reward Fund launched in July 2025, the office was assisting with four open cases. Today, the office is assisting with 21 cases.
The fund offers up to $10,000 for those who can provide tips for missing persons and homicide investigations. In some of the homicide, suspicious death, and missing persons cases, families can use those funds to purchase search kits or purchase space on roadside billboards asking people with information related to the case to come forward.
Negrete credits the reward fund — and the billboards advertising it that have gone up across the state — for bringing families forward who had been waiting, sometimes for years, without answers.
“Other families are starting to think, okay, well, is this something that could lead to resolution for my loved one that was murdered?” Negrete said. The fund, she said, has given families “a kind of renewed sense of hope.”
For families like White’s, that visibility matters in another way too. It means more people know they aren’t alone.
In the year since Evan Denny’s death, his family has been intentional in observing his absence. The family has a meal together every month to share their memories of him with one another.
“We talk about him all the time like he’s here,” White said. Food, she said, was “his love language”— chicken, spaghetti, his auntie’s fry bread and his grandma’s tamales.
Community members take part in a prayer gathering at Cedar Field Park in response to recent fatal shootings affecting members of the Native American community in Minneapolis.
Tim Evans | MPR News 2025
Joe Rainey is a cousin to Denny and to 28-year-old LeRas Rainey, another victim who died at Hennepin County Medical Center days later.
Today, Joe Rainey lives in Green Bay, Wis., on the Oneida Nation reservation, but he grew up in south Minneapolis and travels back often. He’s a father of five and a performing artist. He has been thinking about how the younger people in the family — cousins, friends, and community — are carrying the loss of someone their own age.
What he has noticed, he said, is that they are finding their own ways of grieving. Some participate in the monthly gathering. Some put up tributes for others to see. Some lean on each other.
“I think they want to commemorate and memorialize their relative and do things and the way that will make them feel comfortable, because it’s a difficult task, task when you’re going through grief, to find that comfort,” Rainey said.
Joe Rainey, cousin of Evan Denny and LeRas Rainey.
Courtesy of Joe Rainey
The family held a memorial dinner on the anniversary of Denny’s death. Rainey said it felt different from the funeral last year. The memorial dinner was solemn, he says, but his family was also able to come together to smile and laugh as they told stories about their loved one.
“I’m happy that they’re going forward,” Rainey said.
What he wants is for the young people in his family to know their feelings are real and worth taking seriously — and that grief is something they can move through with the help of family, culture, and spirituality.
“It’s free to be a good relative,” he said. “Free to check on your relatives and your elders, talk with them. Send them a text message.”
Tuesday’s gathering at the Minneapolis American Indian Center will include a reading of names of missing and murdered relatives. Negrete says the list is drawn from families, from the state’s missing persons clearinghouse, from the office's own caseload, and from community partners, but it is not comprehensive.
For Natosha White, what helps most is sharing space with other grieving families.
“I’m just thankful that we have support and that we have events like this to honor our loved ones,” she said. “I think it’s just very important for those to know that there is people out here like us, and you know we’re there for each other, because only we know what we’re going through on this side.”
“The first rule of investing isn’t ‘Don’t lose money.’ It’s ‘Recognize when the rules are changing.’”
UPDATE: MAY 1 2025
The February 2025 European semiconductor export restrictions sent markets into a two-day tailspin, wiping $1.3 trillion from global equities. For most investors, it was another stomach-churning reminder of how traditional portfolios falter when geopolitics overwhelms fundamentals.
But for a growing cohort of forward-thinking portfolio managers, it was validation. Their Strategic Scenario Portfolios—deliberately constructed to thrive during specific geopolitical events—delivered positive returns amid the chaos.
I’m not talking about theoretical models. I’m talking about real money, real returns, and a methodology you can implement right now.
What Exactly Is a Strategic Scenario Portfolio?
A Strategic Scenario Portfolio (SSP) is an investment allocation designed to perform robustly during specific high-impact events—like trade wars, sanctions, regional conflicts, or supply chain disruptions.
Unlike conventional approaches that react to crises, SSPs anticipate them. They’re narrative-driven, built around specific, plausible scenarios that could reshape markets. They’re thematically concentrated, focusing on sectors positioned to benefit from that scenario rather than broad diversification. They maintain asymmetric balance, incorporating both downside protection and upside potential. And perhaps most importantly, they’re ready for deployment before markets fully price in the scenario.
Think of SSPs as portfolio “insurance policies” that also have the potential to deliver substantial alpha.
“Why didn’t I know about this before now?” SSPs aren’t new—institutional investors have quietly used similar approaches for decades. What’s new is systematizing this approach for broader application.
Real-World Proof: Two Case Studies That Speak for Themselves
Case Study #1: The 2018-2019 US-China Trade War
When trade tensions escalated in 2018, we constructed the “USChinaTradeWar2018” portfolio with a straightforward mandate: protect capital while capitalizing on trade-induced dislocations.
The portfolio allocated 25% to SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) as a core risk-off hedge. Another 20% went to Consumer Staples (VDC) for defensive positioning, while 15% was invested in Utilities (XLU) for stable returns and low volatility. The remaining 40% was distributed equally among Walmart (WMT), Newmont Mining (NEM), Procter & Gamble (PG), and Industrials (XLI), creating a balanced mix of defensive positioning with selective tactical exposure.
The results were remarkable. From May 2018 to December 2019, this portfolio delivered a total return of 30.2%, substantially outperforming the S&P 500’s 22.0%. More impressive than the returns, however, was the risk profile. The portfolio achieved a Sharpe ratio of 1.8 (compared to the S&P 500’s 0.6), demonstrating superior risk-adjusted performance. Its maximum drawdown was a mere 2.2%, while the S&P 500 experienced a 14.0% drawdown during the same period. With a beta of just 0.26 and alpha of 11.7%, this portfolio demonstrated precisely what SSPs are designed to deliver: outperformance with dramatically reduced correlation to broader market movements.
Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance calculated using total return with dividends reinvested, compared against S&P 500 total return.
Case Study #2: The 2025 Tariff War Portfolio
Fast forward to January 2025. With new tariffs threatening global trade, we developed the “TariffWar2025” portfolio using a similar strategic framework but adapted to the current environment.
The core of the portfolio (50%) established a defensive foundation across Utilities (XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Healthcare (XLV), and Gold (GLD). We allocated 20% toward domestic industrial strength through Industrials (XLI) and Energy (XLE) to capture reshoring benefits and energy independence trends. Another 20% targeted strategic positioning with Lockheed Martin (LMT) benefiting from increased defense spending and Cisco (CSCO) offering exposure to domestic technology infrastructure with limited Chinese supply chain dependencies. The remaining 10% created balanced treasury exposure across long-term (TLT) and short-term (VGSH) treasuries to hedge against both economic slowdown and rising rates.
The results through Q1 2025 have been equally impressive. While the S&P 500 declined 4.6%, the TariffWar2025 portfolio generated a positive 4.3% return. Its Sharpe ratio of 8.4 indicates exceptional risk-adjusted performance, and remarkably, the portfolio experienced zero drawdown during a period when the S&P 500 fell by as much as 7.1%. With a beta of 0.20 and alpha of 31.9%, the portfolio again demonstrated the power of scenario-based investing in navigating geopolitical turbulence.
Note: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance calculated using total return with dividends reinvested, compared against S&P 500 total return.
Why Traditional Portfolios Fail When You Need Them Most
Traditional portfolio construction relies heavily on assumptions that often crumble during times of geopolitical stress. Historical correlations, which form the backbone of most diversification strategies, routinely break during crises. Mean-variance optimization, a staple of modern portfolio theory, falters dramatically when markets exhibit non-normal distributions, which is precisely what happens during geopolitical events. And the broad diversification that works so well in normal times often converges in stressed markets, leaving investors exposed just when protection is most needed.
When markets fracture along geopolitical lines, these assumptions collapse spectacularly. Consider the March 2023 banking crisis: correlations between tech stocks and regional banks—historically near zero—suddenly jumped to 0.75. Or recall how in 2022, both stocks AND bonds declined simultaneously, shattering the foundation of 60/40 portfolios.
What geopolitical scenario concerns you most right now, and how is your portfolio positioned for it? This question reveals the central value proposition of Strategic Scenario Portfolios.
Building Your Own Strategic Scenario Portfolio: A Framework for Success
You don’t need a quant team to implement this approach. The framework begins with defining a clear scenario. Rather than vague concerns about “volatility” or “recession,” an effective SSP requires a specific narrative. For example: “Europe imposes carbon border taxes, triggering retaliatory measures from major trading partners.”
From this narrative foundation, you can map the macro implications. Which regions would face the greatest impact? What sectors would benefit or suffer? How might interest rates, currencies, and commodities respond? This mapping process translates your scenario into investment implications.
The next step involves identifying asymmetric opportunities—situations where the market is underpricing both risks and potential benefits related to your scenario. These asymmetries create the potential for alpha generation within your protective framework.
Structure becomes critical at this stage. A typical SSP balances defensive positions (usually 60-75% of the allocation) with opportunity capture (25-40%). This balance ensures capital preservation while maintaining upside potential if your scenario unfolds as anticipated.
Finally, establish monitoring criteria. Define what developments would strengthen or weaken your scenario’s probability, and set clear guidelines for when to increase exposure, reduce positions, or exit entirely.
For those new to this approach, start with a small allocation—perhaps 5-10% of your portfolio—as a satellite to your core holdings. As your confidence or the scenario probability increases, you can scale up exposure accordingly.
Common Questions About Strategic Scenario Portfolios
“Isn’t this just market timing in disguise?” This question arises frequently, but the distinction is important. Market timing attempts to predict overall market movements—when the market will rise or fall. SSPs are fundamentally different. They’re about identifying specific scenarios and their sectoral impacts, regardless of broad market direction. The focus is on relative performance within a defined context, not on predicting market tops and bottoms.
“How do I know when to exit an SSP position?” The key is defining exit criteria in advance. This might include scenario resolution (like a trade agreement being signed), time limits (reviewing the position after a predefined period), or performance thresholds (taking profits or cutting losses at certain levels). Clear exit strategies prevent emotional decision-making when markets become volatile.
“Do SSPs work in all market environments?” This question reveals a misconception about their purpose. SSPs aren’t designed to outperform in all environments. They’re specifically built to excel during their target scenarios, while potentially underperforming in others. That’s why they work best as tactical overlays to core portfolios, rather than as stand-alone investment approaches.
“How many scenarios should I plan for simultaneously?” Start with one or two high-probability, high-impact scenarios. Too many simultaneous SSPs can dilute your strategic focus and create unintended exposures. As you gain comfort with the approach, you can expand your scenario coverage while maintaining portfolio coherence.
Tools for the Forward-Thinking Investor
Implementing SSPs effectively requires both qualitative and quantitative tools. Systems like the Equities Entity Store for MATLAB provide institutional-grade capabilities for modeling multi-asset correlations across different regimes. They enable stress-testing portfolios against specific geopolitical scenarios, optimizing allocations based on scenario probabilities, and tracking exposures to factors that become relevant primarily in crisis periods.
These tools help translate scenario narratives into precise portfolio allocations with targeted risk exposures. While sophisticated analytics enhance the process, the core methodology remains accessible even to investors without advanced quantitative resources.
The Path Forward in a Fractured World
The investment landscape of 2025 is being shaped by forces that traditional models struggle to capture. Deglobalization and reshoring are restructuring supply chains and changing regional economic dependencies. Resource nationalism and energy security concerns are creating new commodity dynamics. Strategic competition between major powers is manifesting in investment restrictions, export controls, and targeted sanctions. Technology fragmentation along geopolitical lines is creating parallel innovation systems with different winners and losers.
In this environment, passive diversification is necessary but insufficient. Strategic Scenario Portfolios provide a disciplined framework for navigating these challenges, protecting capital, and potentially generating significant alpha when markets are most volatile.
The question isn’t whether geopolitical disruptions will continue—they will. The question is whether your portfolio is deliberately designed to withstand them.
Next Steps: Getting Started With SSPs
The journey toward implementing Strategic Scenario Portfolios begins with identifying your most concerning scenario. What geopolitical or policy risk keeps you up at night? Is it escalation in the South China Sea? New climate regulations? Central bank digital currencies upending traditional banking?
Once you’ve identified your scenario, assess your current portfolio’s exposure. Would your existing allocations benefit, suffer, or remain neutral if this scenario materialized? This honest assessment often reveals vulnerabilities that weren’t apparent through traditional risk measures.
Design a prototype SSP focused on your scenario. Start small, perhaps with a paper portfolio that you can monitor without committing capital immediately. Track both the portfolio’s performance and developments related to your scenario, refining your approach as you gain insights.
For many investors, this process benefits from professional guidance. Complex scenario mapping requires a blend of geopolitical insight, economic analysis, and portfolio construction expertise that often exceeds the resources of individual investors or even smaller investment teams.
About the Author: Jonathan Kinlay, PhD is Principal Partner at Golden Bough Partners LLC, a quantitative proprietary trading firm, and managing partner of Intelligent Technologies. With experience as a finance professor at NYU Stern and Carnegie Mellon, he specializes in advanced portfolio construction, algorithmic trading systems, and quantitative risk management. His latest book, “Equity Analytics” (2024), explores modern approaches to market resilience. Jonathan works with select institutional clients and fintech ventures as a strategic advisor, helping them develop robust quantitative frameworks that deliver exceptional risk-adjusted returns. His proprietary trading systems have consistently achieved Sharpe ratios 2-3× industry benchmarks.
📬 Let’s Connect: Have you implemented scenario-based approaches in your investment process? What geopolitical risks are you positioning for? Share your thoughts in the comments or connect with me directly.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The performance figures presented are based on actual portfolios but may not be achievable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.
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