How a fertilizer shortage could affect U.S. food prices



A worker spreads fertilizer after planting potatoes at Bluff View Farms on April 24, 2026 in West Jefferson, North Carolina.

A worker spreads fertilizer after planting potatoes at Bluff View Farms on April 24, 2026 in West Jefferson, North Carolina.
A worker spreads fertilizer after planting potatoes at Bluff View Farms on April 24 in West Jefferson, N.C. High fertilizer prices due to the war in Iran have hit farms already dealing with severe weather, tariffs and the high costs of fuel and labor.
Allison Joyce | Getty Images North America

When the war with Iran started, one of the top economic concerns globally was the slowdown of oil shipments. But there was another critical export that got stuck in the region when hostilities began: fertilizer.

Before the war, around one-third of the world's fertilizer transported by sea passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to UN Trade and Development. The waterway has become a shipping chokepoint in recent months.

With the strait closed, fertilizer shipments from the Persian Gulf slumped and prices rose, affecting countries all around the world that import fertilizer. The war also created a global shortage of natural gas, a key component in nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing.

It caused a massive headache for U.S. farmers who were hit with higher fertilizer prices and limited availability just as they were deciding what to plant for the upcoming growing season.

But the costs borne by farmers don't necessarily get passed on to consumers, and food system experts say they're unlikely to have a major impact on the retail prices of fruit and vegetables.

“Consumers are going to see higher food prices come September to January, once harvests start coming in, and the few months thereafter,” said Chris Barrett, a professor of agricultural economics at Cornell University. “Very little of that is going to be directly attributable to fertilizer.”

That's because food inflation is generally driven by larger factors affecting multiple parts of the food supply chain, such as fewer workers and high fuel costs.

U.S. farmers are rethinking their plans

About one-third of the fertilizer used by U.S. farmers is imported, according to The Fertilizer Institute, an industry trade group. TFI Vice President of Public Affairs Christopher Glen said little of that comes through the Strait of Hormuz.

“But we get impacted in a big way because the fertilizer market is global,” Glen said over email. “Even if those tons from the Mideast aren't coming to the US, they are still tons that have been removed from the market and need to be made up elsewhere. That's where the pressure comes from.”

An American Farm Bureau Federation survey released in April reported that 70 percent of respondents said they couldn't afford all the fertilizer they needed this season.

Some farmers are more vulnerable to price swings than others. Producers of corn and wheat, which rely heavily on fertilizer, can spend around a third of their operating costs on fertilizer alone. Half of the farmers who responded to a survey released by the National Corn Growers Association in early April said they wouldn't apply the full amount of fertilizer to their corn crop this year, due largely to higher costs and limited availability.

Because farmers often secure their fertilizer stores well before a growing season begins, some weren't seriously affected by the price swings created by the war in Iran. (Iran said it closed the Strait of Hormuz shortly after it was attacked by the U.S. and Israel at the end of February. U.S. corn growing season typically begins in April.) But they are worried about the future: corn growers who responded to the survey were twice as concerned about the 2027 corn crop as they were about this year's.

This season, some farmers may opt to plant crops that require less nitrogen fertilizer than corn, such as soy beans, in response to rising costs.

According to USDA data, farmers are expected to plant 95.3 million acres of corn this year, down from 98.8 million acres last year. But the total acreage of soybeans is predicted to rise to 85.4 million acres this year from 81.2 million acres last year.

U.S. grocery prices probably won't take a huge hit

If higher fertilizer costs lead to smaller harvests, that could contribute to modest retail price hikes. A TD Economics analysis estimated that a 2-5 percent production shortfall in North America could grow food inflation by around 0.1-0.5 percentage points in 2027.

But experts say the costs of the fertilizer shortage will be largely shouldered by farmers.

The amount a farmer spends on fertilizer is a small fraction of the total cost to grow food and get it to grocery store shelves. Just 12 cents of every dollar U.S. consumers spend on food goes to farms, while the rest is received by transportation companies, processors, wholesalers and grocery stores, according to the USDA. And the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service reported that U.S. farms spent around 7 percent of their budgets on fertilizer, lime and soil conditioners in 2024 (though farmers growing crops more reliant on fertilizer such as corn would spend more).

Additionally, farmers don't have much bargaining power to negotiate with wholesalers for higher crop prices when their operating costs rise, according to Rob Vos, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute. “Those buyers will go to other farmers to try and get it cheaper,” he said.

But there are factors other than the fertilizer crunch that are more likely to cause food prices to jump. Barrett said the global food industry is facing a “really unpleasant layer cake” of pressures, from tariffs and extreme weather to higher prices on labor, fuel and fertilizer.

“No one of those by itself is especially painful,” he said. “But when you add them all up, they become quite painful together.”

In parts of Africa and Asia, the effects of the fertilizer shortage could be far worse. Jorge Moreira da Silva, Executive Director of the UN Office for Project Services, said in April that the reduction of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz may prove “very significant and severe” for poorer countries. Less-developed countries that rely heavily on fertilizer from the Persian Gulf include Sudan, Sri Lanka, Tanzania and Somalia.

The fertilizer industry is recovering — and may adapt in the process

Some fertilizer prices have begun to fall again in recent weeks, after the U.S. and Iran reached a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz last month.

The Trump administration has also taken steps to lower fertilizer costs for American farmers. This week, Trump temporarily suspended “countervailing duties” on certain phosphate imports, which are added to some imported goods to cancel out subsidies provided by foreign governments.

Still, it will be a while before the fertilizer sector returns to normal. Vos estimated that it could take weeks or months for fertilizer manufacturing plants to come back online and return to previous production levels. If high prices stick around, that could snarl the plans of U.S. farmers preparing to plant cool-season crops this autumn, he added.

Barrett said the trouble with the fertilizer industry has also gotten farmers thinking about how they can protect themselves from these kinds of supply-chain disruptions in the future and looking for other ways to replenish their soil, such as manure, compost and cover crops.

“Just like we're seeing more people interested in electric vehicles because the price of gasoline and diesel has gone up, you see more farmers interested in other ways of replenishing soil nutrients as the price of fertilizer has gone up,” he said.

Copyright 2026, NPR



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Recent Reviews


Real estate investors regularly pursue new ventures that require substantial upfront investments before generating any revenue. A successful investor might purchase land for a luxury resort, spend hundreds of thousands on architectural plans and permits, and begin construction on facilities designed to serve paying customers. These early expenditures represent legitimate business development costs, incurred with the genuine expectation of future profits.

But what happens to these costs when construction defects or other problems prevent these ventures from ever opening their doors? Can expenses incurred in planning and developing be deducted as trade or business losses? The answer depends on whether the taxpayer was actually “engaged in carrying on any trade or business” when the losses occurred.

The recent Root v. Commissioner, T.C. Memo. 2025-51, case addresses when ambitious real estate projects fail before operations begin.

Facts & Procedural History

The taxpayers selling their family business in 2008. Prior to this, during the 1990s, while still running their business, the taxpayers began planning their next venture: a recreational ranch and guest lodge in Oregon.

The planned lodge would combine fishing with equestrian activities and hospitality. Beginning in 1995, the taxpayers purchased four parcels of land totaling over 90 acres, including waterways, pasture, and farmland. They invested in property improvements, including waterway restoration to enhance fishing opportunities.

In September 2000, the taxpayers contracted with an architect to design a lodge, guest wing, council house, and barn. Construction began in 2003. The scope of work included the main house, council house, and garage, with the total project representing a substantial investment in what was intended to become a commercial hospitality operation.

Problems emerged almost immediately after the lodge received its certificate of completion in May 2006. Snow and rain caused flooding, revealing serious defects in windows, roofing, and weatherproofing. By 2007, the taxpayers discovered hundreds of bats living in the walls along with rats and mice, creating foul odors throughout the structure. A forensic architect later determined that the foundation was defective and the main fireplace was structurally unsound.

County officials condemned the lodge as unsuitable for occupancy in 2010 after receiving reports of the structural defects. The lodge was eventually demolished. The taxpayers sued their contractor and architect to recover their losses. They ultimately recovered approximately $3 million through arbitration and litigation but paid approximately $4 million in legal fees.

Throughout this entire period

Throughout this entire period, the lodge never hosted overnight guests. The taxpayers never obtained an innkeeper’s license, hired hospitality employees, or developed booking systems. While they did host occasional events on the property between 2002 and 2009–including television filming, fundraisers, and dog trials–none involved stays at the lodge.

The taxpayers initially filed their 2014 tax return listi…

The taxpayers initially filed their 2014 tax return listing the husband’s principal business as a consulting business reporting more than $300,000 in gross receipts. However, in May 2018, they filed an amended return claiming a $5 million dollar loss related to the lodge project. They carried portions of this claimed net operating loss to their 2017 and 2018 returns, claiming carryovers of $3 million each year. The IRS examined the tax returns and issued a IRS Notice of Deficiency disallowing the net operating loss carryovers in full and imposing accuracy-related penalties for both years.

Trade or Business Requirements Under Section 165

Section 165(c)(1) allows individual taxpayers to deduct losses “incurred in a trade or business.” This requires the taxpayer actually be engaged in a trade or business when the loss occurs. This is different than the rules under subsection (2), which does not have a trade or business requirement.

The distinction between business losses under Section 165(c)(1) and investment losses under Section 165(c)(2) has significant implications for tax treatment and carryover rules. Business losses (under subsection (1)) can generate net operating losses that may be carried back or forward to offset income in other years, while investment losses (under subsection (2)) are generally limited to offsetting capital gains and may be subject to different timing restrictions. Additionally, business losses (under subsection (1)) aren’t subject to the investment interest limitations that can restrict the deductibility of losses from investment activities. Understanding these distinctions becomes particularly important for real estate activities and rental properties that may qualify for special tax benefits like the Section 199A deduction.

Despite these consequences, neither the tax code nor regulations define the phrase “trade or business.” One has to turn to the court cases for the definition. In Commissioner v. Groetzinger, 480 U.S. 23 (1987), the Supreme Court said that determining trade or business status requires examining all facts and circumstances in each case. Courts apply consistent standards across different code sections, including Section 162(a) for business expense deductions and Section 165(c)(1) for business loss deductions.

These court cases start with the concept of trade or busi…

These court cases start with the concept of trade or business as something that extends beyond simple profit-seeking activities. Many taxpayers engage in profit-motivated transactions that don’t rise to trade or business level.

The courts have developed a three-factor test for establi…

The courts have developed a three-factor test for establishing trade or business status. First, the taxpayer must undertake the activity with genuine profit intent rather than personal or investment motives. Second, the taxpayer must be regularly and actively engaged in the activity, demonstrating continuity and regularity rather than sporadic involvement. Third, the taxpayer’s business activities must have actually commenced, meaning the business has begun functioning as a going concern.

This third factor often proves most challenging in cases involving failed or abandoned ventures. For this factor, the courts distinguish between planning and preparation activities–which don’t constitute trade or business operations–and actual business activities that do qualify for trade or business treatment.

When Do Business Activities Actually Begin?

The leading court case for establishing when business operations commence is Richmond Television Corp. v. United States, 345 F.2d 901 (4th Cir. 1965).

In Richmond, the Fourth Circuit held that “even though a taxpayer has made a firm decision to enter into business and over a considerable period of time spent money in preparation for entering that business, he still has not ‘engaged in carrying on any trade or business’ until such time as the business has begun to function as a going concern and performed those activities for which it was organized.”

This standard requires more than research, investigation, or extensive preparation. The business must actually engage in the activities for which it was designed, even if those activities don’t immediately generate revenue or profits. A business can qualify as operational while losing money, provided it’s performing its intended functions and holding itself out to serve customers.

The distinction between pre-opening expenses and business operations becomes particularly important for hospitality ventures like hotels, restaurants, and lodges. These businesses typically require substantial investments in facilities, equipment, and infrastructure before serving their first customer.

Courts analyze whether the business has crossed the threshold from preparation into operations by examining specific operational indicators. Does the business have systems for accepting customers? Has it obtained necessary licenses and permits? Does it have employees or infrastructure capable of delivering services? Has it begun marketing to potential customers or holding itself out as available for business?

The Lodge Project Was Not a Trade or Business

In the present case, the U.S. Tax Court found that the taxpayers’ lodge venture never crossed the line from preparation into actual business operations. Despite substantial investments exceeding $5 million and genuine business intentions, the lodge failed to meet the Richmond Television standard requiring that the business “function as a going concern and perform those activities for which it was organized.”

The lodge never performed its core hospitality function of housing paying guests. The taxpayers themselves acknowledged that the lodge was never in a condition to provide lodging for paying customers. Beyond the construction defects that ultimately led to condemnation, the venture lacked basic operational infrastructure. There was no booking system for accepting reservations, no website for marketing services, no revenue processing capabilities, and no customer service procedures. The taxpayers never obtained the required innkeeper’s license or hired hospitality staff.

The court systematically rejected each of the taxpayers’ proposed business commencement dates. The 1995 land purchase couldn’t establish a hospitality business when no lodging facilities existed. Construction beginning in 2003 represented preparation rather than operations since a lodge cannot house guests while under construction. Even after construction was completed in 2006, the lodge never opened to paying customers. A single open house event in 2006 was insufficient because promotional activities don’t constitute carrying on a trade or business when the facility remains incapable of generating revenue.

The conditional use permit obtained in 2009 also failed t…

The conditional use permit obtained in 2009 also failed to demonstrate business commencement. While permits may be necessary for business operations, obtaining permits alone doesn’t prove that operations have begun. The permit contemplated additional construction that never occurred, and the existing lodge remained unsuitable for occupancy.

The court’s analysis was strengthened by comparing this c…

The court’s analysis was strengthened by comparing this case to Todd v. Commissioner, 77 T.C. 246 (1981), where a similar IRS audit revealed that abandoned real estate development plans don’t constitute trade or business activities. In Todd, a taxpayer’s “plans to enter the business of renting apartments were never realized,” making the resulting losses from abandoned plans non-deductible as business expenses. The policy underlying net operating loss provisions – allowing businesses to “set off their lean years against their lush years” – doesn’t apply when there were no operational years at all.

The taxpayers also failed the regular and active engagement test. The occasional events hosted on the property were too sporadic and disconnected from hospitality operations to establish ongoing business activity. During the construction period, the taxpayers were simultaneously operating their primary fruit processing business, and after selling that business, one spouse continued leading another company. By the time they might have focused on the lodge, construction defects had made the facility uninhabitable, shifting their attention litation and remediation rather than business development.

The Takeaway

The decision helps explain when activities become trade or business operations for tax purposes. The case shows that substantial investments, genuine business intentions, and professional development don’t create trade or business status when ventures never become operational. Construction defects, permit delays, and market conditions that prevent business opening don’t transform preparation costs into business expenses, regardless of amounts involved or underlying business legitimacy. Taxpayers contemplating similar ventures should focus on establishing operational capabilities as early as possible in development processes. While construction problems may prevent full operations, having booking systems, customer infrastructure, and revenue collection mechanisms might strengthen arguments that trade or business activity has commenced.

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