Minnesota Republicans will gather in Duluth this weekend to attempt to resolve a problem that’s eluded them for two decades: How to win a statewide race here.
The party is working to come out of the political wilderness and sizing up a formula that can help them notch November wins in open races for U.S. Senate and governor, among others.
That question about the best path has stirred disagreements, with some Republicans pursuing an uncompromising platform aligned with President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, others say taking a more moderate approach could be more palatable to the political middle this fall.
Going into the endorsement contests, some candidates have said they’ll move on to a partisan primary no matter what. Republican voters tend to follow the party’s endorsement in those situations. But some candidates with national networks and strong fundraising said they’re hopeful they can buck that trend.
That means while Republican delegates make their picks this weekend, it might take a few more months and competitive primaries to determine whose names appear on November’s ballot.
Tim Pawlenty was the last Republican to win a statewide office for the GOP when he scored a second term as governor in 2006. He tried to reclaim the office in 2018 but lost in a primary.
Since Pawlenty’s win, Republicans have fallen short in a combined 10 races for governor and U.S. Senate. They’ve lost all of the other statewide offices and presidential contests in that span, too.
‘Time for a change’
As she campaigns for governor, Republican Lisa Demuth tells voters her party has a strong case to make in Minnesota despite potential headwinds nationally.
“Can a Republican win? And I’m here to tell you, yes, we absolutely can win,” Demuth told a crowd during a Rochester candidate debate this month. “That is why I’m running for governor. Because it is possible.”
Demuth touted the deals she’s struck as House speaker across a divided government — and a tied House no less. The package from the just-concluded session includes a public construction projects bill, property tax relief and license tab fee reductions.
She said having Republicans in charge of St. Paul would supersize those accomplishments.
"Too long of having Democratic control has not made us stronger and it is time for a change,” Demuth said.
Her rivals in the GOP race for governor also promise sweeping change. All frequently concentrate on an issue that’s been especially potent for Republicans: fraud. They also question whether Demuth has been too willing to work with the political opposition.
DFL Gov. Tim Walz ditched a reelection bid early this year, unable to shake report after report of problems in state-managed Medicaid programs and other cases of fraud. He committed to spending the last year of his term building up better fraud defenses.
Businessman Kendall Qualls said the state’s problems require an outsider’s approach.
“Our campaign is a rescue mission. I believe after 20 years of trying to win statewide elections in the Republican Party with politician after politician, with insider after insider, I believe that you have permission as a voter and a delegate to consider an alternative,” Qualls said. “And that alternative is someone who actually has gotten things done both personally and professionally.”
Demuth, Qualls and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell have led straw polls ahead of the convention. Lindell is a staunch ally of President Donald Trump, who has yet to weigh in on the race.
“You can have all these things and all these credentials but you have to win,” Lindell said on MPR News’ Politics Friday earlier this year. He says he has a national network his rivals lack. “I’m out nationally. I can raise money to pour into Minnesota to beat Amy Klobuchar.”
Klobuchar is the favorite to gain the DFL endorsement at the party’s convention this weekend in Rochester.
Retired naval officer Phillip Parrish, businessman Patrick Knight, state Rep. Peggy Bennett, construction worker Raul Estrada and minister John Krhin fill out a crowded Republican contest.
It appears headed for an August primary showdown no matter what. The same is true in the U.S. Senate race.
Senate race also unsettled
Former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze has shown strength in local conventions. But former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya’s candidacy has generated more money and the backing of leading Republicans here and in Washington.
“Tim Scott has endorsed me, Rudy Boschwitz has endorsed me. I feel very proud of those. I’ve got a number of letters of support, calls of support from a lot of senators,” Tafoya told MPR News’ Politics Friday. “But listen, that’s not why I’m running. I’m running to get Minnesota back to the place of common sense. Period. The end.”
Unlike Schwarze, Tafoya isn’t pinning her campaign on the endorsement.
“If I believe I am the best candidate remaining, I’m going to go to the primary,” she said.
Also in the hunt is the party’s 2024 Senate nominee, Royce White, despite being dogged by controversies. There are other candidates seeking to make an unexpected splash, including natural foods co-op founder Alycia Gruenhagen, farmer Mark York and Navy veteran Tom Weiler.
Schwarze said refusing to abide by the party’s convention endorsement is a mistake. He drove that point home at a recent candidate debate put on by Wright County Republicans. Tafoya wasn’t there.
“I think it’s really sad that we have candidates not onstage tonight who think there’s a shortcut,” Schwarze said. “The shortcut is not through D.C., it’s through you.”
Schwarze billed himself as the total package.
“If you want a fighter that’s going to fight for you against all the fraudsters and the D.C. elites, then I’m your candidate. If you want a candidate that’s uncompromising, I’m your candidate,” he continued.
Republican delegates will also weigh endorsements for attorney general, secretary of state and state auditor. The convention begins Friday at the Duluth Entertainment Convention Center and is expected to conclude Saturday.
Meanwhile, Democrats will convene for their endorsing convention this weekend in Rochester.
