How to Deal with Complicated Situations


Raise the bar” doesn’t mean what you think it means.

Last week, one of my CEOs came to me with a problem.

“Dave, I’ve been playing around with Claude Cowork, and it’s clear that AI is going to disrupt our business.”

“What are you going to do about it?” I said. 

“Well, it’s complicated,” he replied.

When a founder says “it’s complicated”, it means they’re stuck.

They might be pursuing a plan that isn’t working, or dealing with conflicting goals, or sometimes, facing disruption.

Those words speak to the biggest challenge to making decisions and scaling a company: complexity.

Simple scales, complex fails. 

So why is simplicity so hard?

The problem of complexity will only get worse in the age of AI. 

As the cost of writing code goes down to zero, adding new features is as simple as a voice command.

The temptation is to add more and more. 

And yet, build an amazing product that customers love, or scale a business, or even to pivot, simplicity is essential.

So I came up with a model to help you create simplicity.

Think of an area in your business where complexity is stopping you moving forward. Then apply this simple two-step framework.

Step 1: Make Your #1 Goal Bigger

When your system has only one goal, you can make it very simple.

Adding another goal will create trade-offs, conflicts and edge cases. That’s because when pushed to the limit, all goals are in conflict.

More goals equal more complexity.

In a complex system, you’ll always find a variety of competing goals.

But if you order those goals by impact, they’ll form a Pareto distribution with the majority of goals having very little impact.

To minimise complexity, you need to focus on your #1 goal—the goal with the biggest impact. This is your simplifying goal.

There are two ways to dial up your goal to achieve maximum simplicity:

A. Make the size bigger

Bigger goals create more simplicity than smaller ones. As the goal increases in scale, the number of ways to achieve it decreases.

There are a thousand ways to increase profits by 10%, but very few things can move profits by 10X. Brian Chesky calls it “adding a zero”, and all the top 1% founders I know use this technique.

B. Make the timeline shorter

Near deadlines beat distant ones. As the deadline approaches, it becomes easier to see what really matters.

Imagine I told you you had one year of life left. You’d move items from your “someday” list into your “now” list, and a lot of the “now” list would move to the “never” list.

That’s why all the great founders insist on deadlines most people call crazy, because it’s the best tool you have for forcing clarity and simplicity.

A goal that’s massive and urgent is a simplifying goal because it makes your other goals seem irrelevant.

Step 2: Clean Up Your Thinking

One of the masters of simplicity was Steve Jobs. Steve said, 

“Simple can be harder than complex: you have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it’s worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.”

But what is clean thinking, and why does it create simplicity?

Whether your thinking is clean or dirty depends on what’s motivating it.

In dirty thinking, you:

  1. Start with the plan you want.
  2. Find a way to justify the plan.
  3. Add more to achieve the goal.

Adding requirements is exactly what creates complexity.

But clean thinkers do something different. They:

  1. Start with the goal they want.
  2. Challenge the plan from first principles.
  3. Subtract what won’t deliver.

Subtracting requirements is the essence of creating simplicity.

Notice that if your plan is enough to hit your goal, you don’t need to subtract anything. It’s only when you make your goal bigger and bring the deadline nearer that you are forced to subtract.

So why do we hold onto plans that won’t work, and make our business and life more complicated?

I call this the Hidden Goal Iceberg.

Dirty thinking starts with a justification of something you already want to do. And if you want to do something, it’s not hard to find a justification for it.

We often use words like its “synergistic”, “additive”, or my personal favourite: “it doesn’t hurt”.

However, this is just the surface level . . . underneath is a hidden goal that really drives the attachment to the plan.

A hidden goal might be to finish something you’ve started, or to implement an exciting new idea.

It might be the goal of having the best possible valuation, even when it’s not best for the company. Or the goal of not firing staff, even when they aren’t adding value. 

Hidden goals create complexity just as easily as explicit goals, because all goals are ultimately in conflict.

Even something that sounds as innocent as serving customers can be in conflict with your scale goal, particularly if they are customers you shouldn’t be serving in the first place.

That’s why you have to hunt for hidden goals and identify how they might conflict with the main goal.

And beneath every hidden goal is a fear.

  • The fear of disappointing customers, or a teammate, or your board.
  • The fear of missing out on an opportunity.
  • The fear of failing and giving up on a goal.

The only way to achieve clean thinking is to face your fear and remove some of your hidden goals.

Raise the Bar

Recently, I showed a room full of CEOs a picture of a high jump.

I asked them, “What does it mean to raise the bar?”

“Increasing quality standards,” one of them said, and everyone nodded.

But that is not what raising the bar means. Raising the bar doesn’t make someone who can jump 2 metres suddenly jump 2 metres 10.

The bar is a subtraction tool. 

We raise the bar until people who can’t reach the bar are subtracted.

That’s the key to simplicity. In light of a massive goal, we need to raise the bar until everything that can’t meet it has been subtracted.

You need to overcome sunk cost fallacy, shiny object syndrome, and even your own comfort.

And it can require you to say goodbye to team mates, customers, and even potential investors that aren’t aligned with the goal.

So if you’re in a situation that’s “complicated”, it’s time to choose a simplifying goal and make it so big that it becomes very clear what you need to say ‘no’ to . . . which is everything that won’t get you there.

Then, you’ll find that it’s actually simple, but like Steve Jobs said, it’s hard.

And in a world of AI, when everything is possible, saying ‘no’ will be the difference between a complex business that doesn’t scale and a simple one that does.

Related Reading: 


Originally published on April 22nd, 2026

 





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Recent Reviews


The recent conflict in the Middle East and the unprecedented airspace closures have canceled thousands of flights and disrupted the travel plans of an estimated 1 million passengers, myself included.

I was booked on a Middle Eastern airline to the United Arab Emirates on the day the disruption began, and my essential travel home looked impossible.

Here’s how my beloved Capital One miles saved me during a time of crisis.

Related: What to do if your flight from — or through — the Middle East is affected this week

A canceled flight on Emirates

Upon hearing news last month that my father-in-law was reaching his final stages in a health battle, I looked at options to travel from my current residence in London to my home country of Australia to pay my final respects.

Keen to redeem my points and miles, I found an excellent deal: just 35,000 Emirates Skywards miles in economy class for the 22-hour journey Down Under. While I normally do this marathon journey in business class, this trip was not a holiday, and I booked just one week in advance. I needed to get from point A to point B as cheaply, quickly and easily as possible, so economy class made sense.

I chose my seats, checked in online and timed my routine journey to London Gatwick Airport (LGW) perfectly. I arrived 80 minutes before departure, with just enough time to check my bag, head through security and walk onto the plane.

While I normally like to read about world news on the way to the airport to pass the time, on this day, I didn’t, perhaps distracted by the somber reason for this journey.

As I rounded the corner to the Emirates check-in desk, expecting to see a dozen stragglers finalizing check-in, I was instead greeted with hundreds of people milling around, looking concerned; there were no check-in staff at any desks. I noticed everyone still had their large suitcases, which set off alarm bells in my head, and I asked one of the passengers if there was an issue with the flight, fearing an engineering problem or a weather delay.

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It was much worse than that.

The passenger gloomily told me the flight was canceled because Dubai International Airport (DXB) was closed “due to war.” I checked the news on my phone to learn that the U.S. had just launched military strikes against Iran, and all Emirates flights that day were cancelled.

I asked an airport ground staff member what I should do, and they advised me to return to London and await further information from Emirates.

Dejected, I went back to my apartment, rang my husband to explain I wouldn’t be arriving in Australia the following day and tried to figure out what to do.

Eventually exhausted and with no solutions, I decided to sleep on it, hoping to wake up the next morning and find that the order had miraculously been restored to global aviation.

Related: A step up from your average economy: Flying Emirates’ A380 from Dubai to Johannesburg

CAROLINE LASCOM/THE POINTS GUY

Capital One miles to the rescue via Asia

Of course, the next morning, when I woke up and got up to speed on developments, nothing had improved. Middle Eastern airspace was still closed, I had no way to get to Australia and was wasting valuable time to say goodbye to a loved one.

At 8:30 a.m., still in my pajamas, I started looking for any flight options using any points and miles from the U.K. to Australia, leaving as soon as possible. This is where tools like Seats.aero are enormously valuable for being able to search across multiple routes, programs, dates and classes at once.

It took a while to weed out all of the options that went via the Middle East, as I was fairly certain none would operate that day. There were some undesirable options to travel the long way via the U.S., but these required plenty of miles and would be an epic 30 hours in the air, not enjoyable in economy class.

Seats.aero miraculously found me one seat remaining on Thai Airways leaving from Heathrow Airport (LHR) in London at 11:50 a.m. that morning to Sydney Airport (SYD) with a short connection in Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport (BKK) for 65,000 Air Canada Aeroplan points.

Imagining other disrupted travelers in London trying desperately to secure the same seat, I quickly checked my Aeroplan balance, which had only 20,000 points — not nearly enough to book this flight.

Thankfully, I have a healthy balance of Capital One miles that transfer at a 1:1 rate to Aeroplan, and I quickly initiated a transfer of 45,000 miles, which would become the 65,000 Aeroplan points needed to complete this booking. With the time nearing 9 a.m. and bag drop closing 60 minutes before departure (I had to check a bag), I had less than one hour to book this flight, shower and head out the door. Fortunately, I had not unpacked from the day before.

My Capital One miles transferred instantly to Aeroplan, and I hurriedly proceeded to book the Thai Airways redemption. There were several stressful moments when the payment wouldn’t go through. (I feared someone else had reserved the seat while I was transferring the miles, and I would be back to square one.) But eventually it loaded, and I received that all-important ticket number.

I was out the door less than 20 minutes later in an Uber to Heathrow. Explaining at check-in why I had only booked the flight 80 minutes earlier and that it hadn’t been possible to select a seat online this close to departure, she took pity on me, gave me an exit row seat and blocked the seat next to me so I had some extra space.

I was quickly on my way to Australia via Thailand. I arrived just 24 hours after my original Emirates flight, feeling extremely grateful for my Capital One miles.

Why Capital One miles can be good in a crisis

Earning transferable rewards like Capital One miles lets you keep them in your Capital One account and transfer them only when you know you will need them, such as for an emergency. I’ve found this flexibility hugely valuable.

However, in an emergency, time is precious. You may not have the mental bandwidth to check availability, research transfer times and rates, or consider flying to nearby airports to find a reasonable award rate.

Or there just might not be any award availability through any transfer partners. Instead, the only option might be a high cash fare that you may not really be able to afford.

Luckily, you still have a few options with your Capital One miles. You can redeem your miles for flights, hotels or rental cars booked through the Capital One Travel portal at a rate of 1 cent per mile. Additionally, if you made an eligible travel purchase within the last 90 days, you can redeem your miles for a statement credit at 1 cent per mile to offset the cost.

Related: How long do Capital One miles transfers take?

JAVIER RODRIGUEZ/THE POINTS GUY

How to earn Capital One miles

If you’re looking to earn more transferable miles, the following Capital One cards offer great welcome offers:

For more details, read our guides to Capital One transfer partners and how to transfer Capital One miles.

Bottom line

My disrupted travel plans due to the closure of Middle Eastern airspace are exactly why I collect transferable rewards. Had I only earned, say, Emirates Skywards miles, I might still be in London trying to work out how to get home.

Instead, I struck gold by finding the only decently priced and timed economy award seat from the U.K. to Australia the day after the disruptions began, which I could book with Capital One miles that transferred instantly to Aeroplan.

If you want to earn rewards that you can have ready for emergencies like this, Capital One miles are a great choice to collect.

Related: Points and miles aren’t just for the good times. They can be a godsend in an emergency, too



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