Two-thirds of organizations rate physical AI as a high priority for the next three to five years


  • 79% of organizations are already engaging with physical AI[1], with 27% already deploying or scaling solutions
  • 60% of executives believe that physical AI will enable robotics adoption in areas that were once impossible or impractical
  • 43% of executives are interested in physical AI as an enabler of domestic production at scale

Paris, April 17, 2026 – The Capgemini Research Institute today published a report ‘Physical AI: Taking human-robot collaboration to the next level,’ which explores the impact of physical AI on robotics and the value it could unlock for businesses. Physical AI marks a shift in robotics from automation to autonomous action in the real world. The opportunity it represents is widely recognized by executives across sectors, from high tech (93%) to warehousing and logistics (69%) and agriculture (59%), as well as the globe: with nearly three quarters of executives in the US, and around two thirds in Europe, and APAC in agreement.

Moving from experimentation to business impact

Physical AI is at an inflection point as technological breakthroughs and market forces converge to accelerate real‑world deployment at scale. Advances in foundation models are equipping robots with the intelligence needed to operate autonomously in complex environments, while simulation technologies are compressing training cycles by enabling large‑scale learning.

An emerging AI‑robot‑data flywheel is reinforcing this progress, as deployed systems generate real‑world data that continuously improves performance and generalization. These gains are amplified by advances in edge computing[2] and batteries, falling hardware costs, new commercial models such as robotics‑as‑a‑service (RaaS), and connectivity breakthroughs including private 5G and precise wireless positioning.

The optimism is widespread, with 60% of executives saying that physical AI will enable robotics applications that were previously impossible or impractical. Use cases span hazardous operations, micro‑logistics, pick‑and‑place, and field inspection, as well as sector-specific applications such as dynamic assembly in manufacturing, healthcare and eldercare support in the public sector, and disaster-damage assessment in insurance.

Supporting reindustrialization and operational resilience

As reindustrialization efforts accelerate in Europe and the United States, physical AI is emerging as a key enabler of this transition. Indeed, 43% of executives say that reshoring and reindustrialization are increasingly driving their interest in physical AI as a means to support domestic production at scale, while two-thirds of organizations now rank physical AI as a high priority in their automation agenda for the next three to five years. More than half of business leaders cite autonomous mobile robots, industrial robotic arms and cobots as the fastest growing robot form factors in their organization in the next three to five years, well ahead of humanoids[3].

Workforce constraints are a central driver for the growing interest in physical AI. More than labor costs, the top driver of investment in physical AI is labor shortages , especially in the agriculture, retail, high tech, warehousing and logistics and automotive sectors. Geographically, Japan leads in prioritizing physical AI within automation strategies, with more than three quarters of executives identifying it as a priority over the next three to five years, ahead of the US.

Physical AI also supports the agility required to make reindustrialization viable over the long term. Nearly half of executives identify improved flexibility as a key benefit, highlighting the ability to reconfigure production systems and workflows more rapidly than with traditional robotics or fixed automation. Moreover, over half of executives highlight improvements in safety and reduced physical strain.

Physical AI marks a shift from systems that describe the world to systems that can act within it. However, robotics has a long history of overpromising, as early breakthroughs created expectations the technology could not yet meet.” explains Pascal Brier, Chief Innovation Officer at Capgemini and Member of the Group Executive Committee.  “What is different today is not the hype, but the convergence of AI, data, and engineering maturity. The opportunity is real, provided we focus on what works at scale. Deploying physical AI responsibly, safely, and progressively will be essential to building trust, with security by design, transparency, and human oversight at the core of sustainable human‑robot collaboration.”

Scaling physical AI and humanoid robots despite persisting barriers

Nearly two-thirds of executives expect physical AI to reach scale – in terms of moving from pilot projects to large-scale deployments – within the next five years, although only 4% say they are already operating at scale. In fact, scaling physical AI remains a challenge for nearly eight out of ten executives, primarly due to a lack of technology and operating readiness.

Near-term growth will be led by established robot form factors. Humanoid robots, despite strong interest, still face significant barriers and remain a longer-term bet: 72% of executives identified technical immaturity such as reliability and dexterity, while 63% were deterred by the high cost and 58% by the training challenges. In addition, more than six in ten executives are currently unclear on the ROI of humanoid adoption.

Societal acceptance is also a concern with more than six in ten executives believing that public resistance will be a critical obstacle to the adoption of humanoid robots. Public sentiment on this issue varies by region, with 68% of executives in France citing public resistance as a barrier compared with 56% in Spain.

To access the full report: https://www.capgemini.com/insights/research-library/ai-in-robotics/

Methodology of the report

In January and February 2026, the Capgemini Research Institute conducted a global survey of 1,678 executives from organizations with annual revenue above $1 billion, across 16 countries across North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific and spanning 15 industries. For aerospace and defense as well as government and public services, the threshold was $500 million. Executives surveyed were director level and above.

About Capgemini

Capgemini is an AI-powered global business and technology transformation partner, delivering tangible business value. We imagine the future of organizations and make it real with AI, technology and people. With our strong heritage of nearly 60 years, we are a responsible and diverse group of over 420,000 team members in more than 50 countries. We deliver end-to-end services and solutions with our deep industry expertise and strong partner ecosystem, leveraging our capabilities across strategy, technology, design, engineering and business operations. The Group reported 2025 global revenues of €22.5 billion.

Make it real | www.capgemini.com

About the Capgemini Research Institute

The Capgemini Research Institute is Capgemini’s in-house think-tank on all things digital. The Institute publishes research on the impact of digital technologies on large traditional businesses. The team draws on the worldwide network of Capgemini experts and works closely with academic and technology partners. The Institute has dedicated research centers in India, Singapore, the United Kingdom and the United States. It was ranked #1 in the world for the quality of its research by independent analysts for six consecutive times – an industry first.

Visit us at https://www.capgemini.com/researchinstitute/

[1]Physical AI represents the next major evolutionary stage in AI: AI that acts in the physical world. Robotics is among its most significant applications.

[2] Edge computing means processing data where it is created, such as directly on a robot, instead of sending it to a remote data center.

[3] In this report, humanoids refer to robots with human‑like form factors, including both full‑humanoid robots (with torso, head, two arms, and two legs) and human‑like robots that share some human features but may differ in structure (e.g., wheels instead of legs, fewer limbs, or simplified body plans).





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Taxpayers often submit refund claims when they discover that they overpaid their taxes. Taxpayers usually do this by submitting a formal refund claim using the IRS’s prescribed forms. But this is not always required.

In many cases, taxpayers will submit so-called “informal refund claims” to the IRS during the course of an IRS audit. The IRS treats these informal claims as a refund claim as if the proper tax forms were filed. Given that the tax forms are often not used for informal claims, there may be less certainty as to what the taxpayer’s claim entails. The informal claim itself may just be various business records, complications, etc. or a myriad of other records that the taxpayer submits to the auditor.

This leads to the question as to whether the “variance doctrine,” which can prohibit taxpayers from litigating certain claims in court if they differ substantially from the taxpayer’s position on audit, applies to informal refund claims. The recent Express Scripts, Inc. v. United States, No. 4:21-cv-00035-HEA (E.D. Mo. Feb. 24, 2025) case provides an opportunity to consider this question.

Facts & Procedural History

The taxpayer in this case is a pharmacy benefit manager. It processes prescription drug claims for health plan sponsors and operates mail-order pharmacies.

During an IRS examination, the taxpayer submitted informal claims to the IRS auditor for Section 199 domestic production tax deductions that it omitted from its originally-filed tax returns.

As part of this process, the company provided the IRS with detailed workpapers and memoranda categorizing various revenue streams. These documents specifically identified certain “rebate” revenue and portions of their “mail claims” revenue (those manually entered into their system) as non-qualifying revenue streams that should be excluded from their Domestic Production Gross Receipts (“DPGR”) calculations. The taxpayer took the same positions in the formal administrative refund claims they later filed with the IRS for refunds for the years 2010, 2011, and 2012.

Nearly a decade after the initial claims, the taxpayer determined that both the rebate revenue and manually entered mail claims were qualifying for the Section 199 deduction. The taxpayer filed suit seeking refunds of federal income taxes for tax years 2010, 2011, and 2012, claiming it properly qualified for the Section 199 tax deduction for its rebate revenue and manually entered mail claims.

The government moved to dismiss the portions of the refund claims relating to rebate revenue and manually entered mail claims, arguing that the taxpayer was barred by the “substantial variance doctrine” from including revenue streams in tax litigation when they had specifically excluded them during the administrative claims process.

The Framework for Tax Refund Claims

Section 7422(a) allows taxpayers to sue the government for tax refunds. This is one of the permissible means to litigate a tax issue.

Section 7422 states that no suit for tax recovery can be maintained in any court “until a claim for refund or credit has been duly filed with the Secretary, according to the provisions of law in that regard, and the regulations of the Secretary established in pursuance thereof.”

This is the foundation for what courts often call the “pay first, litigate later” system for tax disputes. Under this framework, taxpayers must first pay the disputed tax, then file an administrative refund claim with the IRS, and only afterward can they pursue litigation if the IRS denies their claim or fails to act within six months.

The treasury regulations provide specific requirements for these administrative refund claims. Treasury Regulation § 301.6402-2(b) states that a claim “must set forth in detail each ground upon which a credit or refund is claimed and facts sufficient to apprise the commissioner of the exact basis thereof.” This regulation serves as the foundation for the substantial variance doctrine that limits what taxpayers can argue once they get to court.

What Is the Substantial Variance Doctrine?

The substantial variance doctrine operates as a jurisdictional limitation on tax refund litigation. As articulated in Lockheed Martin Corp. v. United States, 210 F.3d 1366, 1371 (Fed. Cir. 2000), which involved a research tax credit, a taxpayer is barred from presenting claims in a tax refund action that “substantially vary” the legal theories and factual bases set forth in the tax refund claim presented to the IRS.

The doctrine has two distinct branches: one addressing legal theories and another addressing factual bases. For legal theories, the rule states that “any legal theory not expressly or impliedly contained in the application for refund cannot be considered by a court in which a suit for refund is subsequently initiated.” This means taxpayers cannot pursue entirely new legal arguments in court that weren’t presented to the IRS.

The factual variance branch, which was at issue in the Express Scripts case, prohibits taxpayers from substantially varying the factual bases raised in their refund claims. This rule is not all that strict. Minor factual variations are permitted. Taxpayers cannot introduce entirely new factual elements that the IRS never had an opportunity to consider.

Why Does the Variance Doctrine Exist?

The substantial variance rule serves three primary purposes. First, it gives the IRS notice as to the nature of the claim and the specific facts upon which it is predicated. This notice function ensures that the IRS understands exactly what the taxpayer is claiming and why.

Second, it gives the IRS an opportunity to correct errors administratively. This purpose reflects the preference for resolving tax disputes at the administrative level rather than through costly litigation.

Third, it limits any subsequent litigation to those grounds that the IRS had an opportunity to consider and is willing to defend. This purpose helps ensure that courts aren’t faced with entirely new claims that the IRS never had a chance to review.

These purposes reflect the fundamental principle that tax litigation over refund claims is meant to be a review of the IRS’s administrative determination, not an entirely new proceeding where taxpayers can raise new issues.

Applying the Variance Doctrine to Informal Claims

Most refund claims follow the formal procedures outlined in IRS regulations, typically involving the filing of Forms 1040X for individuals, Forms 1120X for corporations, etc. However, courts have long recognized the “informal claim doctrine,” which allows taxpayers to satisfy the administrative claim requirement through less formal means.

An informal claim can suffice when it puts the IRS on notice that the taxpayer is seeking a refund, describes the legal and factual basis for the refund, and has some written component. IRS audits often provide opportunities for taxpayers to make these informal claims as part of the examination process.

The taxpayer in this case made its initial claims through informal claims during an IRS examination, providing detailed workpapers and memoranda. But does the variance doctrine apply differently to informal claims than to formal ones?

The answer is no. Courts have consistently held that the substantial variance doctrine applies equally to informal claims. In fact, the requirements for specificity can be even more important for informal claims, as the IRS must be able to determine from sometimes less structured submissions exactly what the taxpayer is claiming. This case is an example of the court applying the variance doctrine to informal claims.

Merely Additional Evidence of the Amount

The taxpayer argued that the variance doctrine did not apply as the inclusion of rebates and manually entered pharmacy claims merely represented “additional evidence” of the amount of their Section 199 deduction. They contended that because they were still seeking the same Section 199 deduction, there was no substantial variance in their legal theory.

The court rejected this argument, focusing on the fact that the taxpayer had “specifically excluded these amounts throughout the entire administrative claims period and indeed, through this action until it was asserted in the expert reports.” The court found that the taxpayer’s addition of this revenue “changes the facts upon which the IRS assessed Plaintiffs’ claims.”

The court emphasized that Express Scripts “specifically declined to include these items in its claim. As such, the IRS was not given the opportunity to review whether they were properly designated as gross receipts.” Because the IRS never had the opportunity to consider whether these additional revenue streams qualified for the deduction, the substantial variance doctrine barred their inclusion in the litigation.

What if the IRS Reviews the Position on Audit?

The taxpayer also argued that the IRS had waived the substantial variance doctrine by considering the allocation of DPGR. This approach reflects a strategy sometimes used in tax audits where taxpayers argue that the IRS has effectively waived technical requirements by addressing the merits of a claim.

The court rejected this waiver argument on factual grounds, noting that the taxpayer had “specifically exempted the rebates and manually entered mail pharmacy claims” from consideration, so the IRS “could not have considered the merits of these claims because they were not before the IRS for examination.”

The court’s reasoning highlights a critical point: taxpayers cannot claim waiver based on the IRS’s consideration of issues that were never actually presented to the IRS. The waiver argument can only work when the IRS actually considers facts or theories that were raised in the administrative claim.

The Takeaway

This case shows how important it is to provide clear detail and consistency when submitting tax refund claims to the IRS. This includes informal claims submitted to the IRS on audit. Taxpayers who specifically exclude certain factual bases from their administrative refund claims—whether formal or informal—may not be able to later include those bases in litigation, even if their legal theory remains unchanged. The substantial variance doctrine operates as a jurisdictional bar in these cases, which can serve to deny the taxpayer their day in court.

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